Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Bioavailability and toxicity of chemicals in inland waters : the importance of prevailing water chemistry and implications for risk assessment

Physicochemical characterization of freshwater samples from Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain revealed that water hardness and pH decreased and the quantity and quality of humic substances changed considerably in this geographical series from south to north. Since the ambient water chemistry may affect the availability of chemicals, the total aqueous concentration of a chemical may be insufficient to predict the bioconcentration, subsequent biological response, and thus risk. In addition, organisms could be affected directly by water quality characteristics. In this context the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the bioavailability of selected ecotoxicologically relevant chemicals (cadmium, benzo(a)pyrene, and pyrene) in various European surface waters and to show the importance of certain water chemistry characteristics in interpreting the bioavailability and toxicity results. The bioavailability of cadmium to Daphnia magna was examined in very soft humic lake water. Humic substances as natural ligands decreased the free and bioavailable proportion of cadmium in soft lake water. As a consequence the uptake rate and the acute toxicity decreased compared with the humic-free reference. When the hardness of humic lake water was artificially elevated, the acute toxicity of cadmium decreased, although the proportion of free cadmium increased. The decreased bioavailability of cadmium in hard water was a result of effective competition for uptake by the hardness cations, especially calcium ions. The protective role of humic substances and water hardness against cadmium toxicity was also observed in Lumbriculus variegatus, although D. magna was more sensitive to cadmium. The bioavailability of two polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene, was studied in European surface waters of varying water chemistry. Humic substances acted as complexing ligands with both PAHs, but the bioavailability of the more lipophilic benzo(a)pyrene to D. magna was affected more by humic substances than that of pyrene. In addition, not only the quantity of humic substances, but also their quality affected the bioavailability of benzo(a)pyrene. Nevertheless, the humic substances played a protective role in the photo-enhanced toxicity of pyrene under UV-B radiation. Water hardness had no effect on pyrene toxicity. Results indicate that the typical physicochemical characteristics of boreal freshwaters should be considered carefully in local and regional risk assessment of chemicals concerning the Fennoscandian region.

Functional Outcome after Free Flap Reconstructions in Oral and Pharyngeal Cancer

Oral cancer ranks among the 10 most common cancers worldwide. Since it is commonly diagnosed at locally advanced stage, curing the cancer demands extensive tissue resection. The emergent defect is reconstructed generally with a free flap transfer. Repair of the upper aerodigestive track with maintenance of its multiform activities is challenging. The aim of the study was to extract comprehensive treatment outcomes for patients having undergone microvascular free flap transfer because of large oral cavity or pharyngeal cancer. Ninety-four patients were analyzed for postoperative survival and complications. Forty-four patients were followed-up and analyzed for functional outcome, which was determined in terms of quality of life, speech, swallowing, and intraoral sensation. Quality of life was assessed using the University of Washington Head and Neck Questionnaire. Speech was analyzed for aerodynamic parameters and for nasal acoustic energy, as well as perceptually for articulatory proficiency, voice quality, and intelligibility. Videofluorography was performed to determine the swallowing ability. Intraoral sensation was measured by moving 2-point discrimination. The 3-year overall survival was over 40%. The 1-year disease-free survival was 43%. Postoperative complications arose in over half of the patients. Flap success rate was high. Perioperative mortality varied between 2% and 11%. Unemployment and heavy drinking were the strongest predictors of survival. Sociodemographic factors were found to associate with quality of life. The global quality of life score deteriorated and did not return to the preoperative level. Significant reduction was detectable in the domains measuring chewing and speech, and in appearance and shoulder function. The basic elements necessary for normal speech were maintained. Speech intelligibility reduced and was related to the misarticulations of the /r/ and /s/ phonemes. Deviant /r/ and /s/ persisted in most patients. Hoarseness and hypernasality occurred infrequently. One year postoperatively, 98% of the patients had achieved oral nutrition and half of them were on a regular masticated diet. Overt and silent aspiration was encountered throughout the follow-up. At 12-month swallow test, 44% of the patients aspirated, 70% of whom silently. Of these patients, 15% presented with pulmonary changes referring to aspiration. Intraoral sensation weakened but was unrelated to oral functions. The results provide new data for oral reconstructions and highlight the importance of the functional outcome of the treatment for an oral cancer patient. The mouth and the pharynx encompass a unit of utmost functional complexity. Surgery should continue to make progress in this area, and methods that lead to good function should be developed. Operational outcome should always be evaluated in terms of function.

Total Hip and Knee Arthoplasty for Osteoarthritis : Factors Related to the Early Outcome of Surgery

Some perioperative clinical factors related to the primary cemented arthroplasty operation for osteoarthritis of the hip or knee joint are studied and discussed in this thesis. In a randomized, double-blind study, 39 patients were divided into two groups: one receiving tranexamic acid and the other not receiving it. Tranexamic acid was given in a dose of 10 mg/kg before the operation and twice thereafter, at 8-hour intervals. Total blood loss was smaller in the tranexamic acid group than in the control group. No thromboembolic complications were noticed. In a prospective, randomized study, 58 patients with hip arthroplasty and 39 patients with knee arthroplasty were divided into groups with postoperative closed-suction drainage and without drainage. There was no difference in healing of the wounds, postoperative blood transfusions, complications or range of motion. As a result of this study, the use of drains is no longer recommended. In a randomised study the effectiveness of a femoral nerve block (25 patients) was compared with other methods of pain control (24 patients) on the first postoperative day after total knee arthroplasty. The femoral block consisted of a single injection administered at patients´ bedside during the surgeon´s hospital rounds. Femoral block patients reported less pain and required half of the amount of oxycodone. Additional femoral block or continued epidural analgesia was required more frequently by the control group patients. Pain management with femoral blocks resulted in less work for nursing staff. In a retrospective study of 422 total hip and knee arthroplasty cases the C-reactive protein levels and clinical course were examined. After hip and knee arthroplasty the maximal C-reactive protein values are seen on the second and third postoperative days, after which the level decreases rapidly. There is no difference between patients with cemented or uncemented prostheses. Major postoperative complications may cause a further increase in C-reactive protein levels at one and two weeks. In-hospital and outpatient postoperative control radiographs of 200 hip and knee arthroplasties were reviewed retrospectively. If postoperative radiographs are of good quality, there seems to be no need for early repetitive radiographs. The quality and safety of follow-up is not compromised by limiting follow-up radiographs to those with clinical indications. Exposure of the patients and the staff to radiation is reduced. Reading of the radiographs by only the treating orthopaedic surgeon is enough. These factors may seem separate from each other, but linking them together may help the treating orthopaedic surgeon to adequate patient care strategy. Notable savings can be achieved.

Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of pre-eclampsia

Women with a history of pre-eclampsia have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease in later life. The mechanisms which mediate this heightened risk are poorly understood; it was long believed that pre-eclampsia was a separate disease without any connection to other pathologies. The present study was undertaken to investigate the cardiovascular risk milieu, vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors, in women with pre-eclampsia, 5 6 years after index pregnancy. The aim was to understand better the cardiovascular risks associated with pre-eclampsia and add tools to the evaluation of cardiovascular risk in women. --- The study involved 30 women with previous severe pre-eclampsia and 21 controls. The 2-day study protocol included venous occlusion plethysmography and pulse wave analysis for assessment of vascular dilatory function and central pulse wave reflection, respectively, office and ambulatory blood pressure measurements, assessment of insulin sensitivity, using a minimal model technique, and tests regarding renal function, lipid metabolism, sympathetic activity and inflammation. Vasodilatory function was impaired in women with a history of pre-eclampsia; this was seen in both endothelium-dependent and endothelium-independent vasodilatation. Proteinuria during pre-eclampsia did not predict changes in vasodilatation, and renal function was similar in the two groups. Insulin sensitivity was related to vasodilatation and features of metabolic syndrome, but only in the patient group, despite similar insulin sensitivity in the control group. Arterial pressure was higher in the patient group than in the controls and correlated with endothelin-1 levels in the patient group, whilst the overall difference between the groups was diminished in 24 hour arterial pressure measurements. Additionally, women with previous pre-eclampsia were characterized by increased sympathetic activity. Impaired vasodilatory function at the vascular smooth muscle level seems to characterize clinically healthy women with a history of pre-eclampsia. These vascular changes and the features of metabolic syndrome may be related to the increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, increased blood pressure in combination with enhanced sympathetic activity may be additive as regards this risk. These women should be informed about their potential cardiovascular risk profile and the possibilities to minimize it via their own actions. Medical cardiovascular risk assessment in women should include obstetric history.

Primary polyestradiol phosphate versus orchiectomy for advanced prostate cancer : Studies on the efficacy, cardiovascular complications and prognostic factors

Paikallisesti levinnyttä (T3-4 M0) ja luustoon levinnyttä (T1-4 M1) eturauhassyöpää sairastaneet potilaat satunnaistettiin kirurgiseen kastraatioon (orkiektomia) tai lääkkeelliseen kastraatioon lihaksensisäisellä polyestradiolifosfaatilla (PEP) annoksella 240 mg/kk. Verrattiin hoitojen kliinistä tehoa sekä sydän- ja verisuonikomplikaatioita (SV-komplikaatioita). Verrattiin myös hoitoa edeltäviä plasman testosteroni (T) ja estradioli (E2) pitoisuuksia T3-4 M0 ja T1-4 M1 potilaiden välillä sekä selvitettiin potilaiden yleistilan vaikutusta näihin hormonitasoihin. Lopuksi luotiin T1-4 M1 potilaille eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman ennusteellinen riskiluokittelu kolmeen riskiryhmään käyttämällä hoitoa edeltäviä ennustetekijöitä. Kliinisessä tehossa ei orkiektomian ja PEP-hoidon välillä todettu tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Odotetusti T1-4 M1 potilaiden ennuste oli huonompi kuin T3-4 M0 potilaiden. T1-4 M1 potilailla ei ollut SV-kuolemissa hoitoryhmien välillä tilastollista eroa, mutta ei-tappavia SV-komplikaatioita oli PEP ryhmässä (5.9%) enemmän kuin orkiektomia ryhmässä (2.0%). T3-4 M0 potilailla PEP-hoitoon liittyi tilastollisesti merkitsevä SV-kuolleisuus riski orkiektomiaan verrattuna (p = 0.001). PEP ryhmässä 67% kuolemista oli akuutteja sydäninfarkteja. Tämä PEP hoitoon liittyvä sydäninfarktiriski (mukaan lukien myös ei-tappavat sydäninfarktit) oli merkitsevästi pienempi potilailla, joiden hoitoa edeltävä E2 taso oli vähintään 93 pmol/l (p = 0.022). E2 taso oli merkitsevästi matalampi T1-4 M1 potilailla (74.7 pmol/l) kuin T3-4 M0 potilailla (87.9 pmol/l), mutta vastaavaa eroa ei ollut T tasoissa. Sekä T3-4 M0 että T1-4 M1 potilailla yleistilan lasku osittain selitti yksilöllisen T ja E2 tasojen laskun. Eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman riskiryhmäluokittelu (Rg) kolmeen ryhmään luotiin käyttämällä alkalista fosfataasia (AFOS), prostata spesifistä antigeenia (PSA), laskoa (La) ja potilaan ikää. Yksi riskipiste annettiin, jos AFOS > 180 U/l (tällä hetkellä käytössä olevalla menetelmällä AFOS > 83 U/l), PSA > 35 µg/l, La > 80 mm/h ja ikä < 60 vuotta. Lopuksi pisteet laskettiin yhteen. Muodostettiin seuraavat ryhmät: Rg-a (0 -1 riskipistettä), Rg-b (2 riskipistettä) ja Rg-c (3 – 4 riskipistettä). Eturauhassyövän aiheuttama kuoleman riski lisääntyi merkitsevästi siirryttäessä riskiryhmästä seuraavaan (p < 0.001). Rg-luokittelu oli kliinisesti käytännöllinen ja hyvä havaitsemaan huonon ennusteen potilaat.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Antioxidants, weight change and risk of type 2 diabetes

The incidence of type 2 diabetes has increased rapidly worldwide. Obesity is one of the most important modifiable risk factors of type 2 diabetes: weight gain increases and weight loss decreases the risk. However, the effects of weight fluctuation are unclear. Reactive oxygen species are presumably part of the complicated mechanism for the development of insulin resistance and beta-cell destruction in the pancreas. The association of antioxidants with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes has been studied in longitudinal prospective human studies, but so far there is no clear conclusion about protective effect of dietary or of supplementary antioxidants on diabetes risk. The present study examined 1) weight change and fluctuation as risk factors for incident type 2 diabetes; 2) the association of baseline serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentration and dietary intake of antioxidants with the risk of type 2 diabetes; 3) the effect of supplementation with alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene on the risk of incident type 2 diabetes; and on macrovascular complications and mortality among type 2 diabetics. This investigation was part of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled prevention trial, which has undertaken to examine the effect of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene supplementation on the development of lung cancer, other cancers, and cardiovascular diseases in male smokers aged 50-69 years at baseline. Participants were assigned to receive either 50 mg alpha-tocopherol, 20mg beta-carotene, both, or placebo daily in a 2 x 2 factorial design experiment during 1985-1993. Cases of incident diabetes were identified through a nationwide register of drug reimbursements of the Social Insurance Institution. At baseline 1700 men had a history of diabetes. Among those (n = 27 379) with no diabetes at baseline 305 new cases of type 2 diabetes were recognized during the intervention period and 705 during the whole follow-up to 12.5 years. Weight gain and weight fluctuation measured over a three year period were independent risk factors for subsequent incident type 2 diabetes. Relative risk (RR) was 1.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.17) for weight gain of at least 4 kg compared to those with a weight change of less than 4 kg. The RR in the highest weight fluctuation quintile compared to the lowest was 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17). Dietary tocopherols and tocotrienols as well as dietary carotenoids, flavonols, flavones and vitamin C were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Baseline serum alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of incident diabetes. Neither alpha-tocopherol nor beta-carotene supplementation affected the risk of diabetes. The relative risks for participants who received alpha-tocopherol compared with nonrecipients and for participants who received beta-carotene compared with nonrecipients were 0.92 (95% CI 0.79-1.07) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.85-1.15), respectively. Furthermore, alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene supplementation did not affect the risk of macrovascular complications or mortality of diabetic subjects during the 19 years follow-up time. In conclusion, in this study of older middle-aged male smokers, weight gain and weight fluctuation were independent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Intake of antioxidants or serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Supplementation with of alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene did not prevent type 2 diabetes. Neither did they prevent macrovascular complications, or mortality among diabetic subjects.